Cubs’ NLDS Win Keeps Playoffs Alive, Kyle Tucker’s Free‑Agency Looms

When Kyle Tucker, outfielder for Chicago Cubs delivered a clutch RBI single in the eighth inning, the Milwaukee Brewers fell short of a comeback, sealing a 4‑3 victory for the Cubs in Game 3 of the National League Division Series on October 9, 2025. The win forced the series back to Milwaukee for a decisive Game 4 on October 11, keeping Chicago’s postseason dream alive for the first time since the shortened 2020 campaign.

Game 3 Victory and Playoff Implications

The Cubs entered the night trailing the series 1‑2, but a combination of timely hitting and solid bullpen work turned the tide. After a quiet first five innings, Chicago’s offense exploded in the sixth with a two‑run double by veteran shortstop Pedro Pagés. The momentum shifted, and Tucker’s line‑drive single in the eighth put the winning run on the board.

“We knew we had to be aggressive early, but this team showed the resilience you need in October,” said Jed Hoyer, President of Baseball Operations of the Chicago Cubs. “Kyle’s play was the spark we needed.”

The victory also underscored the Cubs’ balanced approach: a 3‑0 win at home followed by a 2‑1 loss in Milwaukee set up a classic seesaw scenario that rewards depth and composure—qualities the Cubs have cultivated since the December 2024 trade that brought Tucker to Wrigley Field.

Kyle Tucker’s Season: From Trade to Slump to Surge

Acquired from the Houston Astros in a December 2024 blockbuster that sent All‑Star shortstop Isaac Paredes, right‑hander Hayden Wesneski and top‑100 prospect Cam Smith to Houston, Tucker arrived with a one‑year, $16.5 million contract.

He opened the season with a jaw‑dropping .302/.404/.615 slash line, eight doubles, six homers and a walk‑to‑strikeout ratio of 17‑14 in the first 24 games. The Cubs rode that firepower to a league‑best 145 runs scored during the same stretch, a run‑production surge that vaulted Chicago to the top of the NL Central.

Come mid‑season, a hairline fracture in Tucker’s hand and accompanying mechanical tweaks triggered a slump that lasted nearly two months—the longest of his career. During that stretch, his batting average dipped below .200, and the Cubs slipped from first place to third, relinquishing the MLB‑best record they had held.

“The injury was a whisper you could feel in his swing,” explained former Astros hitting coach Luis Ortiz. “It wasn’t the kind of thing you see on a CT scan, but it changes timing.”

After a brief stint on the injured list, Tucker returned with a reset approach. In his final 11 regular‑season games, he posted a .400 average, four homers and 11 RBIs, providing the offensive lift that propelled the Cubs into the NLDS.

Free‑Agency Projections and Market Landscape

Tucker’s contract status dominates offseason chatter. He becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2025 campaign. Multiple valuation models are floating around the league:

• Spotrac projects a 10‑year, $385 million extension.
• Some agents argue for a 12‑year, $498 million deal—the largest contract in Cubs history, eclipsing Jason Heyward’s $184 million eight‑year pact.
• Industry insiders broadly estimate a sweet spot between $400 million and $500 million, with full no‑trade rights and minimal opt‑out language.

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent long‑term deal in Toronto, Tucker now stands as the marquee free‑agent on the market, a status that instantly raises his bargaining power.

Potential suitors include the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants—each with a pressing need for an elite right‑field bat. The Mets, in particular, have hinted at a “bold” offer in the upcoming offseason.

Cubs’ Financial Strategy and Retention Possibility

Chicago’s payroll strategy has been under the microscope. The club trimmed its competitive‑balance‑tax payroll from $239.9 million in 2024 to $213 million in 2025, largely by moving Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees after Tucker arrived to take over right field.

“We’re a small‑market team with big‑market ambitions,” said Hoyer. “That means we have to be smart about how we allocate dollars, especially when a star like Kyle is on the hook.”

Analysts at CBS Sports note that the Cubs “act like baseball’s biggest small‑market team despite being the fourth‑most valuable franchise in the sport.” The organization’s front office is expected to begin formal talks with Tucker’s representatives at Excel Sports Management shortly after the World Series.

Retention hinges on more than cash. The Cubs plan to sell Tucker on the experience of playing at Wrigley Field, the city’s passionate fan base, and the “summer at the Friendly Confines” narrative that has historically lured free agents to Chicago.

Still, most projections give the Cubs only a 50‑50 shot at matching the market‑level offer, leaving fans to wonder whether they’ll have to say goodbye to a player who helped resurrect the franchise’s playoff hopes.

What’s Next for Tucker and Chicago

Game 4 on October 11 will decide whether the Cubs force a decisive Game 5 back in Chicago or bow out of the NLDS. Regardless of the outcome, Tucker’s performance in the remaining games will likely influence his negotiating leverage—strong postseason numbers could tip the scales toward a higher‑valued contract.

For the Cubs, the offseason will be a balancing act: pursue an aggressive extension that respects the franchise’s payroll constraints, or let Tucker test free agency and risk losing a cornerstone while rebuilding around younger talent like prospect Jace Hernandez.

“Whatever happens, Chicago’s identity is built on grit,” Hoyer added. “We’ll keep fighting, on and off the field.”